THE PREVIEW: MSU v IOWA

SPARTANS LOOK TO STAY UNBEATEN IN

CONFERENCE AGAINST IOWA

A Michigan State (14-2, 3-0) team which finds itself the sole unbeaten in the Big Ten just three games into conference play hosts the Iowa Hawkeyes (10-7, 2-2) on Tuesday night at the Breslin Center.  Iowa suffered through a mostly miserable non-conference portion of their schedule, but has been much more impressive once they hit league play.  The Hawks are 2-2 in the conference...interestingly enough, both of their losses (a narrow defeat to Purdue and a blowout at the hands of Ohio State) came at home while their two wins, a shocker at Wisconsin and a tight victory over Minnesota, occurred on the road.

Fran McCaffery came to Iowa City from Siena stating that he intended to play a fast, exciting brand of basketball.  Thus far, at least the fast part has been borne out to be true, as Iowa is scoring in the mid 70s on a per game basis.  However, it's still a situation where McCaffery is running his system without ideal fits in terms of his roster.  It'll likely take another couple of years before he really has a team that is truly built to play the way he wants to play.  For now, they are active and play hard, but it's often ugly, as the skill level and athleticism necessary to really make an uptempo approach hum are lacking.

BACKCOURT – Southfield Lathrup's Devyn Marble (son of Flint Beecher and Iowa great Roy) has emerged as the starter at point guard, a bit of a surprise as he didn't play that position often in high school.  Marble is far from an ideal answer at the position, but he's got  a relatively good handle, decent vision, and most importantly has a nice off the dribble game that he's able to exploit a bit better when he has the ball in his hands out front.  Marble is one of just two Hawks averaging double digits in scoring thus far.  His game is in the mid range and at the rim...he's not a good jump shooter and rarely takes them.  Still, in all he's been a decent answer at this position since entering the starting lineup...his assist to TO ratio is spectacular (better than 3:1) and he's improved his overall assertiveness since leaving Michigan.

Matt Gatens is one of the few holdovers from the Lickliter era who has proved able to completely successfully transition between styles that almost couldn't be further apart from each other in terms of the approach to the game.  Gatens lost weight and got his conditioning up a level, and that's allowed him to thrive as the top scoring option for this team.  Gatens averages more than 13 ppg and he's doing it while shooting the ball respectably (46%/34%), and he's also active enough to get himself to the free throw line fairly regularly, where he shoots better than 86%.  Gatens is also a solid wing rebounder, a very good secondary ball handler, and an active defender.

Eric May might be the best athlete on this team.  The 6'5” junior wing has started every game this season, showing respectable deep range (37% from three) to go with his athleticism which allows him to be effective at times inside the arc as well.  They'd like him to be a bit more assertive in terms of looking for chances to score...he's a guy who shows enough potential to suggest that he could be a double digit guy instead of the 7 plus per night he currently is.  

Off the bench, senior Bryce Cartwright is the main man.  A starter at the point for most of last season, Cartwright had some health issues that limited him a bit early on and when Marble took over, the team started to play better, putting a still not 100% Cartwright in a reserve role.  At his best, Cartwright is a presence for this team.  He has outstanding quickness and can play fast while not making a ton of mistakes.  Thing is, he's really struggling with his shot.  He wasn't good last year (39%/27%) but he's been markedly worse this season (33%/14%) and that negates some of the good things he does for this team's offense as a playmaker.

6'5” freshman Josh Oglesby is the other backcourt reserve.  Unlike Cartwright, the newcomer has shot extremely well for Iowa thus far, hitting 39% of his threes, which is significant because about 2/3 of his overall attempts from the floor come from outside the arc.  As with all three Iowa starters at the guard spots, his length can present some problems for opponents as they try to attack the Hawks, particularly when they go to a zone look.

FRONTCOURT – Most had 6'8” soph Melsahn Basabe ticketed for big things this season.  As a freshman, the former Siena commit who followed his coach to Iowa City was a major surprise, averaging  11ppg and 6.8 rpg as a live, active body on the interior.  Instead, his second season has been a  struggle.  Basabe has gone backward in almost every area.  He's only averaging 9ppg and 6 boards per contest, he's struggling to finish at the rim at times, and he's just generally less of a presence.  Iowa needs him to be the guy who impacted all areas of the game last season with his energy level...that player has been mostly lacking this season.

Zach McCabe is another sophomore, but a very different player than Basabe.  McCabe is an undersized (6'7” and about 230lbs) post player who is contributing mostly through grit and hustle.  He's playing a bit smarter this year...he's reduced the number of three point attempts he's taking and his success rate has gone way up as a result.    Right now, he's the best option Iowa has inside.  Down the line, the hope would be that better talent coming in behind him will allow McCabe to shift to what is probably a more natural role...an energy/hustle guy off the bench on a decent team, which is what his talent level suggests he really is.

Off the bench, McCaffery uses several players to provide spot minutes.  Devin Archie is a 6'9” guy who has some athleticism and bounce but lacks the skill set or strength to be a major impact guy.  6'8” freshman Aaron White has been the guy who's helped the most off the Hawk bench.  White is intriguing over the long term because he has some of the same hustle/energy traits that define several other Hawk players, but he appears to be a shade more skilled than most of them.  He's a guy to watch for down the line as he continues to develop.  6'9” senior Andrew Brommer is the one guy on this roster who has legitimate Big Ten post player strength, though his limitations otherwise mean that he can only impact games in limited ways.  Brommer plays within himself and can provide a physical presence no other Hawks can, so that has some value.


THE 5 KEYS:

Back On The Beam – MSU will have been off for a week, their longest break of the season thus far.  Normally, this sort of period is where Izzo teams tend to make their biggest strides, but given how well the Spartans have been playing, you have to hope that they can simply maintain the overall sharpness of their recent play at both ends of the court.  

Punish Them – Iowa likes to play fast these days.  That should be tailor-made for  a Spartan team that has the athletes and finishers to excel in the transition game if given the opportunity. The key is to be efficient and not allow the Hawks' occasional forays into helter-skelter play to suck you down with them.

Post – MSU continues to do a great job of both getting the ball into the post and finishing when the opportunities present themselves.  Iowa is a small team on the interior and MSU should be able to convert at a very strong clip if they're as diligent in getting the ball inside as they've been most of the time this season.

Recognition – Iowa likes to switch a lot between man and zone looks defensively.  That puts a responsibility on the Spartans, particularly Appling and Trice as the point guards and Green as the chief conduit through whom so much of the MSU offense flows, to recognize those shifts early and get their teammates into the proper sets.  I suspect we'll see a lot of switching in an attempt to confuse and/or slow down the Spartans, as I think Iowa's staff has to recognize they can't really expect to lock down MSU if they're playing them straight up.

Keep Your Head – One thing I've noticed about Iowa is that their energy and frenetic style of play at both ends tends to produce some chippy play.  It's important for MSU to keep cool even in the face of what could be perceived to be occasional cheap shots and unnecessarily rough play.  Against an outmanned opponent, you don't want to give them any easy chances to hang in a game or gain momentum.

OVERALL – Iowa's two shocking road wins last week had some wondering if perhaps the Hawks had found something after a miserable November and December.  Looking at the results from Iowa City on Saturday, when Ohio State crushed them with a massive second half, it appears those thoughts were probably a bit overdone.  Iowa is pretty much what most thought them to be...a bad team by Big Ten standards.

That said, Iowa has enough things in its corner to make an annoyance of themselves if MSU isn't properly focused.  After all, this same team beat the Spartans once last season, so anything can happen.  Iowa plays hard and if you allow them to muck things up with their borderline spastic style of play, it can get ugly fast and you can find yourself in a tighter game than expected.

I think MSU won't fall victim to that, especially at home. The main problem for Iowa is that the Spartans want to play as fast as they do, except their much, much more athletic and are better equipped to finish transition opportunities.  If MSU is sharp running the break and controls their defensive glass adequately, this could turn into a rout.

PREDICTION – Michigan State 81  Iowa 60