THE PREVIEW: MSU vs MICHIGAN

SPARTANS AND U-M RENEW THEIR GRUDGE

MATCH

 

Coming off its first conference loss and first defeat in any context since early November, Michigan State heads into a rivalry game on Tuesday night with a matchup in Ann Arbor versus the Michigan Wolverines.  Michigan entered the season with reasonably high expectations and have more or less met them to date.  The Wolverines are 14-4 overall and 4-2 in Big Ten play, but they too are entering this game coming off a loss, having been beaten in Iowa City by the Iowa Hawkeyes on Saturday afternoon by a 75-59 count.  Michigan returned starters everywhere except the point, and that was where the major question about this team resided during the fall.  However, freshman Trey Burke has been largely effective in running the Michigan offense and has given his team a scoring punch that even last year's key player, Darius Morris, couldn't provide.  So, Michigan is getting it done slightly differently, but the overall effect is roughly similar to what we saw last season.

Beilein continues to tweak what he does to some extent.  Some things look the same...there is still a relative indifference to rebounding.   There's still a heavy reliance on three point shooting.  However, Burke is a little different sort of dynamic player than Beilein has had before at Michigan (guys like Harris and Morris were true big guards...Burke might be 6 feet tall).  Most importantly, they've gone from being a team that played a ton of 1-3-1 to a mostly man approach.  I'm not sure that last one is actually in this particular team's best interest, given their lack of athleticism and size overall, but it is interesting.

MSU Head Coach Tom Izzo and Senior  Draymond Green give their thoughts on the upcoming rivalry matchup against Michigan.

BACKCOURT –  As mentioned above, Burke has been a revelation for Michigan.  He wasn't heavily recruited by big time programs...he originally committed to Penn State before reopening his recruitment and ending up with the Wolverines.  A high school teammate of Jared Sullinger's, Burke always seemed to be a good-not-great prospect, but he's shown an aggressiveness on offense that wasn't there at a younger age, and it's made him a dangerous scorer.  He's second on Michigan's team in scoring at 14.3 ppg and has done so with a mixture of jump shooting (a respectable 34% from deep so far) and penetration, where he's been very effective.  He's just shy of a 2:1 assist to TO ratio thus far, and I wouldn't put him in Morris' category as a creator just yet, but he's been as effective as Michigan could have hoped for in terms of running their offense.  I do think he's suspect as a man defender...he's had issues dealing with quicker, aggressive guards getting past him, so denial of dribble penetration has to be high on his list of areas to improve upon.

Tim Hardaway Jr. hasn't shot the way John Beilein had to hope he would, but he's still the main scoring threat for the Wolverines, leading the team at 15.7 ppg.  Even last season, Hardaway was a streaky shooter as opposed to a consistent one, but he's been off far more often this season (36% from deep last season and just 29% so far this year), though his overall shooting number is slightly improved.  Hardaway is an above average athlete who seems capable of using that element of his game even more than he already does...he still tends to be too willing to  settle for jumpers as opposed to looking for opportunities to get to the rim.  He too isn't a consistent defender, despite some attributes (athletic ability and length) which would seem to suggest potential in that area.

Off the bench, Beilein will turn to three guys, two of which will see the majority of time.  Stu Douglass is a 6'5” senior who has played a lot of minutes for Michigan over his four seasons.  He's the one guy in M's perimeter group who has the ability to play better than average man defense and he's versatile enough to play on and off the ball.  He's mostly a jump shooter on offense and he's OK from deep (35% from deep, which is ever so slightly down from what he did last year), though I think of him as being closer to Hardaway (feast or famine) than any sort of consistent shooting threat.  Junior Matt Vogrich is a 6'3” wing who is mostly limited to jump shooting in terms of the way in which he can impact a game.  He's had a bad start in that regard (just 25% so far), well down from last season's 39%.  Walk on Eso  Akunne has gotten spot duty at the point and might see a short stint or two in this game.  He's almost entirely a place holder...doesn't have the tools to do much beyond holding the fort down for a couple of minutes here and there.

FRONTCOURT –  Evan Smotrycz is a starter at the 4 position for Michigan.  The 6'8” sophomore got off to a strong start this season but has been less effective of late.  It's a testament to the strength of his start shooting the ball that despite terrible results over the last 3 games, Smotrycz is still hitting  48% overall and 46% from deep.    He is Michigan's leading rebounder at 6.3 per game, showing a bit more grit than he did last season.    When he's playing confidently, he's a guy who can stretch a defense and create problems for the opposition as a true inside/outside threat.

Senior Zack Novak is the classic guy you love (if you're a Michigan fan) to hate (if you root for anyone else).  The 6'3” forward is often at a severe physical disadvantage, as he's not really a wing level athlete and his lack of height creates difficulty in guarding post players.  Yet, Novak works so hard and (if you're not inclined to see things Michigan's way) pushes the boundaries of fair play on occasion that he's able to somehow overcome his physical limitations and compete.  On offense, he's a tough cover, hitting 37% from deep and 49% overall...Novak is a guy that you have to be aware of if you're a defensive player, as he has demonstrated an ability to get himself into good shooting position through movement and savvy.

Jordan Morgan was a major surprise last season as a redshirt freshman.  As the only Wolverine who really looks the part of a Big Ten post player, he's critical to this team's ability to rebound and defend inside.  The 6'9” sophomore isn't quite as in sync with Burke as he was with Morris, and thus his scoring average is down about 2 ppg despite shooting essentially just as well as he did last season.  Most of Morgan's offensive damage is done via the pick and roll game and he's just not getting the same easy opportunities (or rather, the same number of them) as he did last season.  Morgan is a decent rebounder but not a major force on the glass and he's only a decent defender at best in the low post.  However, given his size, Michigan has no better option on that end, so they need him  to stay out of foul trouble and stay on the floor.

Jon Horford has been hurt and that's put a crimp in Beilein's rotation, as Horford gave M another long, active presence inside.  In his absence, Blake McLimans has been seeing more time.  McLimans came in with a reputation as a standard issue Beilein big man, a 6'11” guy who could shoot the deep ball.  He has shot well thus far but in very limited attempts.  The biggest thing for him is that he play hard and hold the fort down long enough to allow guys like Morgan and Smotrycz an opportunity to steal a little bit of rest.  Given MSU's size inside, it's possible that sophomore Colton Christian might also see a few minutes.  He made some big plays against the Spartans last year but the 6'8” forward has played himself essentially out of Beilein's regular rotation this season.


THE 5 KEYS:

1.    Straight Up – I don't know that this is how MSU will defend Burke but I'd really like to see it happen.  Northwestern had a lot of success with good, strong hedges off the pick and roll game and I suspect MSU will be able to do similar things as that's standard issue stuff for the Spartans.  That's a good start.  Then you figure that Keith Appling should be able to do about as good a job in containing dribble penetration as one will see against Burke, so that also helps.  However, when Burke does get into the lane, I think it would be a better move for MSU to force him to score without bringing big man help.  When I've seen Burke be most effective in creating for others (particularly Morgan) it hasn't been off the pick and roll out high as much as it's been off dribble penetration.  When opponents have forced him to convert those chances himself, I think results have been better.  Yeah, he'll likely finish some, but I think that's the lesser of two evils.
2.    Offensive Rebounding – Regardless of whether M sticks  with their man approach or if they use a lot of zone, MSU has to do a better job than they did on Saturday in terms of cashing in on second chance opportunities.  M is a small team and though they've been better on the defensive glass than they used to be, this is still an area where MSU should have a distinct advantage and they must exploit it.
3.    Poise – Michigan doesn't play exactly the way Wisconsin or Northwestern do, but one thing all three of those programs share in common is that they value the ball, don't commit a lot of turnovers, and tend to play the game at a slower pace than does Michigan State.  That means on the offensive end, MSU needs to value the ball better than they did in Evanston in order to maximize scoring opportunities, and on the defensive side the Spartans have to stay solid for a full 35 seconds when required.  We'll see how much the younger Spartan players learned from this past weekend.
4.    Pound Green Pound – Michigan is small (even smaller without Horford to turn to) and vulnerable to strong interior scorers.  MSU has the sort of lineup to do major damage in the paint if they're patient enough to work the ball inside.  
5.    Do They “Get It?” - The reality is that for almost all of the Izzo era, this has been a rivalry solely due to tradition.  The Spartans have dominated the series during the last 15 years...but last year's sweep by the Wolverines  should have any Spartan's attention and focus on making sure that it is truly the one year aberration most MSU folks believe it to be.  Thing is, MSU is rolling into Crisler with a lot of new players, and few of those guys (really, only Alex Gauna and Brandan Kearney) are from the state, so you wonder if they understand all the implications of this game.  If they don't now, they will by 9 PM on Tuesday night.

SPECIAL “SIXTH KEY” - How will the game be officiated?  This is an annual question in this matchup and the short version is that if the game is called tightly, that's an advantage for Michigan, which doesn't want to deal with MSU's physicality.  If it's a bit looser, edge for MSU as they'll be able to impose their will on the smaller, more finesse oriented Michigan team.

OVERALL – Both teams enter this game off a loss, so no advantage either way in that department as MSU and Michigan  should each be sufficiently motivated to get back on the winning track and erase the memory of a disappointing road loss in a game they figured they could win.  Home court hasn't ever meant all that much for Michigan in this series, particularly since Tom Izzo became head coach, as Spartan fans have often had a significant presence in the stands due to Michigan's relative indifference to the sport.  Will that hold true again this year?  If Michigan can't manage to create a true home court edge in this game, they never will...expectations were high and the team has done enough to meet them to encourage optimism in almost any fanbase.

This is a big game for a lot of reasons, something we haven't been able to say very often in recent years.  Both teams are at the top end of the conference standings and want to remain there.  In a Big Ten that appears to actually be truly up for grabs at this stage, every loss is critical.  Annual bragging rights are at stake.  There's also the notion that with a 3rd straight victory over MSU, Michigan could  start to put some actual credibility behind the annual “gap is closing” calls that have always rung so hollow.  So yeah...it matters to both teams.

I think both teams will respond well to their losses over the weekend and bring a strong effort.  To me, the teams are relatively close on the offensive end.  They get there going via different routes, but I don't see major advantages in either direction on offense taken by itself.  However, I do think Michigan State is a better defensive group (the Northwestern game notwithstanding).  I think it's easier to imagine the Spartans putting Michigan in a 5 minute lockdown than the Wolverines managing to do the same thing on their defensive end.  I think before it's over, that will end up being the difference between the two teams.  MSU will be able to get a few more stops when they need them.

PREDICTION – Michigan State 65  Michigan 60