THE PREVIEW: MSU vs MICHIGAN

Michigan State  faces archrival Michigan on Sunday afternoon at the Breslin Center in a game with massive implications for both teams.   After a 4-0 start in league play, MSU has lost 3 of its last 5 and comes into this game with a 6-3 record.   Michigan is a half game up on the Spartans in the Big Ten standings, entering this contest at 7-3 in conference play.  The Wolverines almost completely gagged away what was once a 20 point lead against IU in their most recent game before pulling away at the end, while Michigan State lost its third road game in as many tries at Illinois, the second of which came down to the Spartans missing a final shot to win the game.

Besides the obvious title race implications, an intriguing subplot is the health of Spartan forward Draymond Green.  Green strained his knee in the latter stages of the Illinois game and is, as of this writing, considered likely but not 100% certain to play on Sunday afternoon.  Even if Green does play, it's unclear as to what he'll be able to bring to the game.  Michigan presents some unique challenges to him defensively in that they use two power forwards (Zack Novak and Evan Smotrycz) who play almost exclusively on the perimeter, thus forcing Green to chase the man he's covering much more frequently than in a “normal” game.   It's beyond an understatement to suggest that Green's presence is significant  for Michigan State on both ends of the court, but particularly on offense.  Without him in the lineup, it becomes harder for the Spartans to get the kind of outstanding ball movement than has marked their play for most of this season.

BACKCOURT – Trey Burke has continued his outstanding play since the last time MSU saw him.  The 6 foot freshman guard isn't yet a great jump shooter, but he's good enough (36% from three) to force teams to respect him, which makes it easier for him to get into the lane, where he does most of his damage.  He's a reasonably sound decision maker at the point, though he doesn't yet show the instinctive playmaking that Darius Morris did last season.  I think he's made his most significant improvement defensively, though.  Earlier in the season, he struggled to stay in front of opposing guards at times but I don't see that happening nearly as often recently and that's a big positive.


Tim Hardaway Jr. is in the midst of a slightly disappointing sophomore season, in that he's clearly regressed as a shooter (28% from three and 43% overall) and hasn't shown significant improvement in other areas (he's  Michigan's poorest perimeter defender, for example).  However, he does lead this team in scoring and you have to give him this; in recent games, even when he's struggled, he's shown a knack for making big shots in key moments.  In the Indiana win, he hit a huge three late that took a 2 point lead out to 5, and Michigan never came under serious threat again.  In the first game against MSU, he took Brandon Wood off the dribble and cut a 3 point lead to 1, a key basket that put his team in position to eventually win the game.  So, while it's fair to suggest that he hasn't been what many anticipated so far, he's still a dangerous offensive player, especially in a tight game.


Stu Douglass hit the game winning layup in the first MSU game and though he too has struggled to find consistency with his jumper, he has been a positive overall factor of late since moving into the starting lineup.  He's a sound, versatile defender and as a senior, he understands what John Beilein wants out of his team on both ends to an extent that he's been able to make a lot of “savvy” plays that younger guys don't tend to come up with.  As with Hardaway, Douglass isn't shooting well but is dangerous enough that defenses ignore him at their peril on the arc.


Matt Vogrich is the only guard who will likely see substantial minutes off the bench.  He's been terrible as a jumpshooter, which  is the one thing he was supposed to do well coming into college.  At this point, Vogrich really isn't doing much except taking up space while a starter gets a rest.  Freshman Carlton Brundidge played against Indiana briefly, due to the injury to Eso Akunne.  Brundidge is, in my opinion, a man without a Big Ten position but for the time being, he'll likely see a brief stretch or two because Michigan doesn't have any better options.  At the end of the day, the Michigan starting guards need to be iron men and they've been exactly that...Douglass plays the least of the three and he averages almost 28 mpg.


FRONTCOURT – Jordan Morgan was hammered in the first meeting by Michigan State's big men, registering just 4 points and 2 boards.  On the season, he's been better than that, averaging just under 8ppg and 6 boards per contest, but he's been less effective than he was last season offensively.  That's due in large part to Burke not being quite the same level of player off the high pick and roll than Morris was, and Morgan was the primary beneficiary of his play last season.  This year, the opportunities have come less frequently.  Still, he's of critical importance in this game, as he provides Michigan with its only real strength and size combination in the post, and he's facing a team with serious post threats.


Zack Novak  has had a fine senior season.  He's miscast as a power forward, but due to his energy level, he's at least been able to survive defensively.  On the other end, he's shot the ball extremely well (42% from deep) and has shown a knack for hitting shots when his team desperately needs a basket.  As with Douglass, his experience has allowed him to elevate his level of play beyond what his physical tools would suggest he should be able to provide to his team.


With Jon Horford still out, the Wolverines are essentially down to two reserves.  6'8” sophomore Evan Smotrycz was a starter for much of the season but has been coming off the bench of late.  He's still a key guy for this team because he's the only other true rebounding presence besides Morgan, and though his deep shooting hasn't been nearly the same since entering conference play (he got off to a hot start from deep in November and December), he's still capable of stretching a defense.  Blake McLimans has played steadier minutes lately and has actually been able to make some contributions to his team.   He's shot extremely well in limited attempts, often from outside the arc, but his height at 6'11” allows Michigan to rest Morgan and at least have some size in the paint, though he lacks strength enough to really bang effectively with more physical opponents.


THE 5 KEYS:


1.     Green –  Goes without saying that MSU needs its leader to be on the floor and playing reasonably well in order to maximize its chances to win.  Can MSU win this game without him?  Sure they can, especially at home...but the odds get much better if they have a somewhere-near-normal Day Day on the court.

2.     Paint – MSU did a nice job of going inside in the first game and its post players easily won the battle against the Michigan big men.  If anything, the Spartans need to focus on going to that well even more regularly in this matchup, since I don't see how the Wolverines can handle the Spartan post players physically if they're getting the ball in good scoring position.

3.     Confidence – The MSU perimeter group needs to find some early success in this game with the jump shot.  As a team, they've had two straight games where not much went right.  In particular, sophomore point guard Keith Appling needs to get back to the level of play he's shown for much of the season, where he's been orchestrator, lights out defender and effective scorer. Getting a couple of early ones to fall would likely do wonders for a team that is likely questioning itself just a little bit in that regard.

4.     Defend The Pick And Roll – It's really Michigan's most effective offensive set again this season, though they aren't playing it quite the same way.  MSU did a decent job of hedging in the first game but need to be even better this time around.  Once again, though, I think the key is to force Burke to make shots in the lane without losing touch with Morgan on the roll and creating easy baskets that way.  At the end of the day, MSU has to find a way to limit Burke's penetration.  If you turn him into mostly a jump shooter, that's the best possible outcome.  In general, MSU needs to be much sounder defending the dribble than they were in the first game.  Guys like Smotrycz and Vogrich shouldn't ever take you off the dribble, but they did in the first game.

5.     Contain Emotion – Having lost three straight in the series and playing at home, MSU is in a position where they have to be careful to not get too caught up in the circumstances surrounding the game.  Over the years Izzo has been coach, MSU has generally been very good in finding the proper balance in this matchup.  They need to do that again, bringing intensity but not letting it override good judgment and sharply made decisions.



OVERALL – As of this writing, indications are that Green will play for MSU.  What's unclear is how effective he'll be.  I'm making the assumption that MSU gets something close to the normal Draymond Green.  The fact is that over the years, he hasn't been at his best in this matchup (just look at the career numbers, or even what he did in the game at Crisler this season), but MSU needs him out there at something approximating normalcy in order to right the ship in terms of its offensive efficiency and flow.


If they get a somewhat “normal” #23, I think MSU wins this one relatively easily.  Honestly, if I were Michigan I wouldn't be happy about the  ugliness I saw in C/U earlier this week, because it likely means the Spartans are due for a better shooting performance soon and it might well come against my guys.  I do think we'll see MSU shoot better but just as importantly, I think we'll see strong post play and much better, sounder defense against Michigan's dribble penetration stuff than we did in the first meeting.  Add in home court, and I think MSU wins.


PREDICTION – Michigan State 72  Michigan 61