THE PREVIEW: MSU vs NORTHWESTERN

SPARTANS TO FACE "PRINCETON" OFFENSE

IN EVANSTON

Unbeaten in conference play Michigan State travels to Evanston, Illinois on Saturday afternoon to face a Northwestern team which already has its back against the proverbial wall.  The Cats had a solid non-conference season, going 10-2 with wins over several BCS conference teams (Seton Hall, LSU, Georgia Tech) and understandable losses to Baylor and Creighton.  Yet, since hitting Big Ten play, NU has struggled, getting off to a 1-3 start, with two of the losses (at home against Illinois and this week at Michigan) of the frustratingly close variety.

Coach Bill Carmody has switched things up in some respects this season.  Northwestern has been known during Carmody's tenure as a team which plays an aggressive 1-3-1 zone, but this season the Cats have been mostly playing man defense.  This strikes me as a curious move, given that NU doesn't seem to have improved athleticism relative to prior years, and  they seem to be giving up a better quality of shot on a regular basis this season as compared to the last few years.

On offense, it's the same deal as always...NU runs the “Princeton” offense, complete with backcuts, steady use of the high post to facilitate the offense, etc.  You do have to wonder if  Carmody will be tempted to switch things up against MSU, seeing as how the Spartans present a challenge both in terms of athleticism and size.  I know this much...if I were the Northwestern coach, I'd be thinking long and hard about dusting off the 1-3-1.

BACKCOURT –  Carmody went with what amounted to a four guard starting lineup against Michigan, but I'd be surprised to see the same group on the floor against an MSU team which presents  much more in the way of size and general low post offense.  Either way, freshman Dave Sobolewski will be the starter at the point.  He's had a nice start to his NU career, averaging 8.4 ppg on decent shooting and posting a remarkable 4:1 assist to TO ratio thus far.  However, he's suspect defensively as he doesn't possess upper tier athletic ability.  Also, though the assist to TO number is good, he's not nearly where someone like Juice Thompson was a season ago in terms of decision making and finding ways to make the right pass at the right time in order to maximize his team's chances of scoring.

Drew Crawford has bounced back from an ever-so-slightly disappointing sophomore season to become one of the Big Ten's better players as a junior.  The 6'6” son of long time NBA referee Danny Crawford, Drew is scoring 17.4 ppg very efficiently (he's over 50% from the floor overall and 44% from deep), he's second on his team in rebounding, been solid defensively and in general gives his team the sort of true wing weapon at an athletic 6'6” that Northwestern has rarely had on the roster.  Despite his strong three point shooting numbers, I think he's at his best when he doesn't settle for jumpers and looks to take the ball aggressively to the rim.


Reggie Hearn is a 6'4” junior who has gone from little used reserve to full time starter.  He's in there mostly because he's believed to be a reliable defensive presence with some size on the wing, but he's been a decent shooter when he's taken the opportunity.  One area where Hearn struggles is turnovers...he has one more of those than assists, virtually a mortal sin in Carmody's system.  

Off the bench, the Cats have a pair of players who see a lot of minutes, though both are nursing injuries.  Junior Alex Marcotullio, a product of Warren DeLaSalle, played against Michigan on Wednesday night but reportedly has a toe injury which may have limited the minutes he saw against the Wolverines and might do the same against Michigan State.  When he's right, Marcotullio is a dangerous shooter and a sound ball handler for Carmody.  Sophomore JerShon Cobb had an impressive freshman season and the 6'4” wing seemed set to take his game up a level but in part due to injuries (lately a hip issue, but earlier in the year he missed 4 games due to a concussion) that hasn't happened.  When Cobb is OK physically, he's a dynamic, athletic wing with the potential to be a really good two end player for NU.  He hasn't been right thus far, though, and thus his shooting and overall play have suffered as a result.  Given that he didn't play at all against Michigan, it would seem he's at least questionable for this game.  6'5” senior Nick Fruendt might  have a shot at seeing some minutes despite only playing in 10 games thus far.  He's shot well in very limited attempts and has some experience, but he will likely only see the floor if Cobb can't go and if Marcotullio is severely limited.


FRONTCOURT – John Shurna found himself as the lone big man in the Cat starting lineup against Michigan and while that was effective at times in that game, it's hard to imagine Carmody going with that alignment often against Michigan State.  Shurna is mostly doing what he's done throughout his Northwestern career and that's score from a variety of places on the floor.  He's averaging 19ppg and doing it via some outstanding perimeter shooting, and occasional play around the basket.  He's also NU's leading rebounder at 6 per game, registers a bit more than a block and a half per contest, and is generally the most important Wildcat at all times.  Shurna creates difficulties for opposing defenses because of his versatility...he's big enough to score on the blocks when NU gets him the ball down there, and yet he can stretch your defense with his jump shooting as well as any big man in the conference.

Luka Mirkovic has been a regular starter for the last three seasons but didn't get the call in NU's last game.  However, given MSU's size and style of play, I suspect he'll be on the floor for the opening tap in this contest.  Mirkovic is having a rough final season.  His numbers are down pretty much across the board...he's shot poorly (last year, he hit 51% overall and 43% from deep and he's a career three point shooter in the high 30s.  This year, he's 0-10 from beyond the arc), he's rebounding less effectively and he's not providing the same sort of defensive presence he had in the past.  Still, Mirkovic at his best is capable of being the ideal sort of 5 man for Carmody.  He can shoot well, he can pass effectively out of the high post, and he has in the past played with more grit than most Wildcat players.

Davide Curletti will likely be the only frontcourt reserve who sees the floor in this game.  The Orchard Lake St.Mary graduate gives NU legit size at 6'10” and plenty of experience, but he too hasn't shot the ball as well this season as he had previously.   Curletti can be a clever low post scorer at times, with a nice variety of moves at the rim and enough size to at least occasionally finish them.

THE 5 KEYS:

1.    Defensive patience – Always Job One against Northwestern is to  play a full 35 seconds of defense and to be alert for back cuts.  NU can lull you to sleep if you're not careful, and Izzo noted that the few defensive breakdowns MSU suffered in the Iowa game were on back cuts. Generally speaking, MSU has done a great job in locking down NU's offense but every year is a new opportunity with new players.

2.    Pound the offensive glass – NU gave up 17 offensive rebounds to a Michigan team that doesn't really emphasize that part of the game.  What might they surrender against a Spartan club which bases large parts of its identity on board work?

3.    Attack – If Carmody does stick to the mostly-man defensive approach he's shown this year to date, MSU has to take advantage by being aggressive in getting to the rim.  I don't believe that NU's guards can contain Appling, Trice, etc. if their mindset is assertive from the opening tap.

4.    Post – Going along with 3, MSU should also continue to emphasize getting the ball to the rim by way of post up opportunities.  NU is often small and rarely effective in guarding the low post Plus, as we've seen more and more of late, MSU's post touches often lead to great perimeter looks when the ball comes back out.

5.    Focus – NU  is off to a rough start, MSU has Michigan coming up on Tuesday, and  the Spartans have a good history under Izzo of winning games in Evanston rather easily.  All of those things could produce something less than maximum focus in a young team if they're not careful.  MSU isn't good enough to be able to afford that, even against an NU team on the ropes...maybe ESPECIALLY in this circumstance.

OVERALL – Northwestern needs a win desperately...ANY Big Ten win at this point would do.  To pull it off against a top 10 team in MSU would be perfect tonic for what ails the Cats right now.  However, on paper at least, it's difficult to see that happening.

Northwestern does have two dynamite scorers in Shurna and Crawford.  If either or both of those players are just unconscious offensively (and that can happen...see Kevin Coble at the Breslin Center three seasons ago), they are capable of carrying the Cats and keeping them in the game.   However, right now NU is a team without much depth and without much consistent scoring beyond those two players.  They are also struggling so mightily on the glass and on defense that it's hard to imagine MSU not finding a way to win this one.

I think the Spartans will display enough focus and toughness to pull this one out and put it in the win column.    If NU were to dust off the 1-3-1, that would throw a monkey wrench into the equation and force MSU to show some offensive patience and perimeter shooting that hasn't always been perfect this season.  However, given that the Cats really haven't done much of that this season, I can't go in expecting to see it now.  

PREDICTION – Michigan State 70  Northwestern 62