THE PREVIEW: MSU VS PURDUE
Michigan State will try to stop it's second two-game losing streak of the season on Saturday afternoon as they welcome the Purdue Boilermakers to the Breslin Center. Purdue is 14-5 on the season and, like MSU, 4-2 in conference play entering this game. The Boilers have had an inconsistent season thus far...they've handed Illinois their only loss as of this writing in Big Ten play and have a road win at Minnesota, normally a tough venue. Yet, they lost at Penn State and took a recent home court defeat at the hands of Wisconsin, who was reeling entering that game. What has helped Purdue remain competitive after the loss of E'Twaun Moor and JuJuan Johnson has been the return of 5th year senior Robbie Hummel to the lineup. Hummel might not be quite the same player he was prior to last season, but he's reasonably close and is obviously the key guy in the Boiler lineup. His presence, along with a deep roster of guards, gives Purdue a chance to extend their NCAA Tournament bid streak.
Head Coach Tom Izzo and Senior Draymond Green give their scouting report of Purdue Star Robbie Hummel and talk about their upcoming matchup against the Boilermakers.
BACKCOURT – Lewis Jackson is the orchestrator for the Boilers. The 5'9” senior has played a lot of basketball for coach Matt Painter and is one of three Purdue players averaging double figures, at 10 ppg. Jackson has never been a reliable jump shooter, doing most of his damage via penetration, and that's held true this season as well. He's at 47% overall but just 24% from deep and he only takes about 1 three per game on average. Jackson is a solid decision maker at the point, creating scoring chances for teammates via penetration, and he's a tough defender, though his lack of height can make him occasionally vulnerable against the wrong matchup.
Senior Ryne Smith got off to a sensational start shooting the ball this season and has since cooled down some, but he's still a big time threat for this team and is second in scoring at 10.2 ppg. Smith is almost entirely a three point shooter (117 of his 134 attempts from the field so far have come from outside the arc), so he's not a guy you play to do anything else but shoot the jumper, which he hits at a 45% clip. The big difference between his start and his current play is that teams have focused a bit more on him and thus shot opportunities haven't presented themselves as regularly as they were previously. He's a decent secondary ballhanding option and uses his experience to be another respectable perimeter defensive presence, though he's not an individual stopper by any means.
Kelsey Barlow is the third guard starter. The 6'5” junior has bounced back after an off year as a sophomore to become a reliable presence for the Boilers. Barlow is another guy who isn't much of a deep threat but he uses his size to contribute almost 9ppg for Purdue anyway, mostly coming from inside the arc. He's second on the team in rebounding and leads them in steals, showing a versatility that Painter needs in his lineup. Barlow is also second on the team in assists and has a 2:1 assist to TO ratio. Basically, he's playing solid all-around basketball, with jump shooting the one glaring weakness.
Painter will play several guards off his bench as well. 6'2” sophomore Terone Johnson had a promising freshman season last year and is still playing large minutes for Purdue, but he hasn't progressed as much as they hoped. Seen as a potential point guard of the future, he's struggled with turnovers at times. He is an aggressive player at both ends, though he too struggles with the jump shot. Redshirt freshman Anthony Johnson is a 6'3” guard whom they see as an eventual wing scorer. He too hasn't shot the ball very well, but he's dynamic enough with his handle and athletic ability that he's still been able to bring some occasional scoring punch. He needs to continue to get stronger. Junior DJ Byrd plays inside as often as out, but the 6'5” junior is listed here on the perimeter. He is one Boiler besides Smith who actually is having success with the jumper this season, hitting 40% of his threes, and that's the main way he scores for this team. Byrd is a grit/hustle player not all that dissimilar from Zack Novak at Michigan, save that he's playing less for his team. Similar size and style of play, though.
Sophomore Travis Carroll has been starting at the other post spot recently. Carroll is a guy they think could be something of a post presence eventually, but he hasn't given Purdue a lot of punch in the paint so far. He does tend to stay within himself on offense, which is a good thing. He's also an occasionally effective rebounder, actually leading Purdue on the offensive glass.
Off the bench, a pair of young players will see solid minutes in this game and each have started multiple times as Painter has continued to search for the best possible combination. Freshman Jacob Lawson is a 6'9” athlete inside who has been very good in terms of finishing plays when he gets the chance. He could be a better rebounder than he's shown thus far and likely will be as he gains experience and strength. One problem area; he's a horrendous free throw shooter, currently hitting 35%. Sophomore Sandi Marcus is the strongest Boiler post player and he too finishes plays well inside, but hasn't yet figured out how to impact games consistently, too often playing minutes without producing much of anything.
THE 5 KEYS:
1. Adversity – MSU has now seen some more adversity, losing two winnable games in a row. Both were on the road, but that's not an excuse, as the Spartans had opportunities to take each of them and didn't get it done. In the Big Ten this year, it is critical that teams defend home court and “hold serve,” so this would fall into a must-win category even if MSU wasn't coming off a two game losing streak. We'll see how a young team responds to the challenge that almost every Big Ten season presents at some point.
2. Offensive Rebounding – Purdue is essentially a dead even rebounding team on the season. They haven't given up a ton of offensive boards on an average basis, but opportunities should be there for the Spartans to do some damage in second chance opportunities. Against a generally solid half court defense, that's always critical.
3. Turnovers – Purdue is annually the most aggressive defense on the perimeter that MSU sees in this league, and this year should be no exception. The Boilers force 14.5 TO s per game from their opponents, so MSU is going to have to be strong with the ball in order to avoid giving Purdue extra possessions and possibly transition points. The Spartans haven't looked consistently smooth in the last two games but those teams presented very different challenges than does Purdue. We'll see if that makes a difference, and if MSU might be able to use their aggression against them.
4. Paint – Same old story...MSU has an advantage inside and needs to make use of it. Purdue is better off in some ways than they have been in that they at least have three big bodies besides Hummel that they can rotate in there and feel relatively comfortable with, but MSU should be able to score on the block in this game.
5. Free Throws – For all the gnashing of teeth about MSU's free throw shooting, the Spartans are currently just a shade under the 70% mark as a team. Purdue has really struggled all season long, coming into this game at a bit under 62%. If it's tight and more to the point, if the game is tightly called, that may well be an advantage for the Spartans.
OVERALL – It goes without saying that MSU needs a strong response to the last two games and given that this one is at home, nothing but a victory would be acceptable. This is a decent, respectable Purdue team, but not one with enough horsepower where they should be able to come into Breslin and beat an MSU team that is remotely near playing its game properly.
Purdue will do the things they've always done under Painter. They will play aggressive, tight defense on the perimeter, basically daring officials to call all the contact and looking to create mistakes with active hands. They need to do some of that because this is not a great offensive group. They'll do just enough damage with the deep ball to keep you honest, but other than Hummel, really lack any serious scoring threat on the blocks (though Jackson and Barlow can do damage inside the arc via penetration).
I think MSU will respond well to recent struggles and will do enough things well to win relatively comfortably in a game they have no reason to lose.
PREDICTION – Michigan State 68 Purdue 60
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