THE PREVIEW: MSU VS MINNESOTA

Michigan State looks to maintain its position atop the Big Ten standings with a victory over the Minnesota Golden Gophers on Wednesday night at the Breslin Center.  Minnesota enters the game on a three game win streak, having beaten Indiana and Penn State on the road and Northwestern at home after the Gophers had lost their first four Big Ten contests.  Tubby Smith has done a nice job of rallying his team after they lost top player Trevor Mbakwe to a season-ending injury in December.  It took the Gophers some time to adjust to playing without their power forward and top scorer and rebounder, but they've started to find a level of play that's making them the sort of difficult opponent they were expected to be in the pre-season.

 

BACKCOURT – JUCO transfer Julian Welch has emerged as a big contributor for Smith's team.  The 6'3” junior is the second leading scorer for the Gophers at  10.6 ppg and he's doing a variety of things well for this team.  Welch has been a solid shooter ( 49% overall and 42% from three) and he tops the Gophers in assists.  Welch has had some turnover problems, though (he's committed more than 2 per game and has only 6 more feeds than giveaways on the season).

6'4” sophomore Austin Hollins has started all but one game for Minnesota this year.  The son of NBA great Lionel Hollins, the wing has given Minnesota solid shooting and generally good decision making (he's at just shy of a 2:1 assist to TO ratio).  In Hollins, Smith has a nice combo guard option who gives him both size and perimeter skill.

6'4” freshman Joe Coleman has recently emerged as a starter and has played strong basketball since entering the lineup.  Coleman is an athletic wing who does most of his scoring inside the arc and he's been a different player with extended minutes.  He's scored 61 points in the last 4 games for Minnesota, all of which he's started.  He's giving a fairly athletic group an even bigger jolt of energy and it's probably not an accident that Minnesota's results have improved since Coleman's role expanded.

Off the bench, the Gophers play several guys in a deep rotation.Chip Armelin is a 6'3” sophomore who hasn't quite gotten his shot to come around just yet, but he's a solid defender and capable of scoring some in transition.  Andre Hollins is a 6'1” freshman point guard who has struggled with turnovers early on but he's shot well enough to earn steady minutes and he can also check some at the other end.  6'2” sophomore Maverick Ahanmisi will also see minutes in this game.    He's probably the most purely dynamic playmaker on the roster, and though he's an improved shooter, he's still not dangerous enough as a scorer to earn a starting role on this team.

FRONTCOURT –  With Mbakwe gone, the role of top Gopher offensive threat has fallen to 6'7” junior Rodney Williams, and he's done fairly well in becoming a more consistent presence for his team.  Williams is one of the best pure run/jump athletes in the nation and he's finally started to put everything together and become an all-around impact player.  He's been surprisingly efficient as a decision maker, he's the top rebounder, steals and blocked shot guy, and he leads the Gophers in scoring.  Williams still isn't a great shooter and he's iffy at times off the dribble, but give him credit; he's finally starting to make good on his immense potential.

Ralph Sampson III has had a tough year, in that he hasn't been healthy for much of it.    That's limited his minutes and production to an extent, but the senior has been feeling better and thus playing better of late.  At his best, Sampson creates problems with his size and ability to score on the block and in the midrange. His weakness has been that he hasn't always been willing to stay rooted in the post as much as perhaps he should.
Off the bench, Smith will turn to a pair of redshirt freshmen.  Oto Osenieks is a 6'8” Latvian who has a typical Euro big man game in that he likes to shoot from range.  Trouble is, he hasn't shot the jumper very well thus far.  Eliott Eliason is a 6'11” 260 lbs center who plays a more traditional big man game.  He's been an effective physical presence at times and has at least partially replaced that low post physicality Minnesota lost when Colton Iverson elected to transfer after last season.


THE 5 KEYS:

1.    Glass – MSU's been a bit sloppy of late on the boards. They haven't been getting as much done on the offensive glass as they'd like and they gave up an unheard-of 18 offensive boards to Purdue.  Minnesota isn't a great shooting team, so they would love nothing more than to get second chances at the basket.  MSU needs to re-establish their identity.
2.    Effort – Minnesota generally has been a team that plays hard under Tubby Smith and that's no different this season.  The Spartans will need to match the Gophers' aggression level.
3.    Ball Movement – MSU moved the ball exceptionally well in the Purdue game. It's always a key to great offense and with a fairly young Gopher opponent (especially on the perimeter), you'd hope that the Spartans would find some holes to exploit if they're forcing Minnesota to move.
4.    Push – Minnesota is a pretty athletic team overall and Smith's teams historically like to run when given the chance.  However, that's MSU's preferred method of operation as well.  The Spartans should be looking to force tempo whenever possible and turn this into as much of a 94 foot game as they can, as that should play into their advantage.
5.    Go At Them – Minnesota isn't a huge team but even without Mbakwe, they block a lot of shots.  Usually, the best way to counter that sort of defensive approach is to go straight at the shotblocker.   It'll be important for guys like Nix and Green to go up strong and through the defenders around the basket.


OVERALL – Minnesota got off to a rough start in conference play but they've been impressive in their last three games, all of which were wins and two of which came on the road.  This is a mostly young team, but their effort level and athleticism have enabled them to find a way to get competitive.

If Sampson is starting to find himself, that gives this team a dimension they've lacked for much of this season, namely size in the paint at both ends of the court.  For now, Minnesota is a team without a star but with a large playing group of athletic players who can check decently, get out and run, and shoot just well enough to be competitive.

Again, as with Purdue, this is a game MSU needs to win, given that it's at home.  Minnesota is the rare Big Ten team that can stay with MSU athletically, but they can't match the skill level or the offensive post presence and those things should be the difference.  I expect the Gophers to play hard and compete, but in the end, the Spartans just have too much of everything to lose this one.  Minnesota plays hard but they're in a tough spot in that their preferred mode of play is one that Michigan State feels very comfortable with.

PREDICTION – Michigan State 80  Minnesota 68