THE PREVIEW: MSU vs WISCONSIN

SPARTANS IN SEARCH OF FIRST WIN IN

MADISON IN 11 YEARS

Michigan State  takes its 2-0 conference record and 13-game winning streak into Madison, Wisconsin to face the UW Badgers at the Kohl Center Tuesday night. Most MSU fans are well aware that Kohl is a place that hasn't exactly been kind to the Spartans in recent years.  In fact, since Bo Ryan took over in Madison in the 2001-02 season, the Spartans are winless against the Badgers in that building.

However, Wisconsin's normally impregnable home court advantage hasn't held up to usual standards thus far.  The Badgers have two losses at Kohl already this season, the most recent coming in their last game, an inexplicable 7-point loss to Big Ten bottom-feeder Iowa.  Losing to the Hawks anywhere would have been a shocker but in Madison?  Hard to understand how it happened.

Still, Wisconsin is a team with talent, experience and a long track record of success against Michigan State at home, so anyone believing this game to be anything beyond a  serious test for the Spartans is fooling themselves.  The Badgers are 12-3 overall, 1-1 in the league and are certainly viewing this game against a freshly minted Top 10 Michigan State outfit as a chance to right their ship.

BACKCOURT –  Jordan Taylor has been the straw that stirs the Badger drink for the last three seasons.  The Minnesota native came into his final campaign  as a preseason All Big Ten and All American choice by just about everyone... last year, he had improved his jumper enough to make himself a complete scoring threat and he's always been a great decision maker and defender.  However, there's no way around the fact that Taylor's senior season has been a bit disappointing thus far.   He's really struggling with his shot, hitting only 38% overall and just 33% from three (contrast that with last season's 43% and 43%, respectively, and you see the drop).  His assist to TO ratio is also down a bit (3:1 compared to last season's 4:1).  He's only scoring 12.7 ppg after putting up 18 per contest last year.  Across the board, he just hasn't been as good as he was as a junior and that's as good a place to start as any in attempting to understand why the Badgers have been a wee bit disappointing as a team thus far.  Still, he's a major collegiate talent and a guy MSU has to focus upon to have any shot at winning this game.

Josh Gasser is a 6'4” sophomore wing who is a major deep threat...he's hitting 53% from deep.  Thing is, he doesn't pull the trigger that often...only 2.3 attempts from three per game despite averaging a bit over 30 mpg.  Gasser is a solid secondary ballhandler, decent defender in the Badger team concept, and hits the boards at a nice clip.  The thinking had been that he might take a big step forward this season, and he has in terms of his success rate with the jumper....it's just that he hasn't taken enough of them to really  elevate his presence as a scorer.

Off the bench, 6'1” sophomore Ben Brust is the guy rather than Gasser who has taken a big step forward as a scorer in his second season.   He's gone from a little used backup guard as a freshman to a 10.7 ppg scorer on 41% from deep this season.  Brust is a bit streaky, so he can shoot you in and out of games at times, but there's no question he's emerged as a major threat for the Badgers.  6'4” senior Rob Wilson will also see minutes off the bench for UW.  Wilson hasn't ever quite developed into the player they thought he might be, but he does give UW a defender with size and experience.  He's also shot well in very limited attempts, but hasn't been any kind of real scoring threat so far.

FRONTCOURT –  Ryan Evans has been on something of a roller coaster during his time in Madison.  The 6'6” junior forward had a very promising freshman season in which he showed a ton of promise as a guy who might eventually prove to be the latest in the line of versatile forwards like Alando Tucker and Marcus Landry.  Last year, however,  he took a step backward instead of carving out a bigger role for himself, and he entered this season at a crossroad in terms of his collegiate career.  Evans has responded by making good on all that initial promise, averaging  10.4ppg and a team high 6.7 rpg.  He's also a solid defender.  He doesn't shoot from range as much as he might, given that he's shown an ability to hit the jumper.  If he can add that element to his game on a consistent basis, he still has a chance to end his career as an all-conference type player.  For now, though, he's at least developed into a solid contributor for this team.

Mike Bruesewitz is also a 6'6” junior but his career has taken something of a different path than has Evans'.  Last year, Bruesewitz started to show that he might be more than just a physical agitator, with a strong showing late in the season as a scorer.  His numbers are up in terms of scoring, minutes and rebounds but they haven't gone up as much as some anticipated they might.  Instead, he's essentially playing the same role he did in his first two seasons in Madison; a physical presence who contributes mostly via hustle and grit.

Jared Berggren is the latest Badger big man to develop slowly, but who eventually finds his way into being a  productive player.  Berggren is a 6'11” junior who resembles Brian Butch a bit and his game is relatively similar as well, in that he's a big body who can step away from the basket and do damage (38% from three). He's the second leading scorer on this team and once again proves that you can't ever count a Bo Ryan recruited big man out until they run out of eligibility.  His length gives UW a bit of a post defensive presence as well, though he's not the rebounder you might expect a man of his size to be.

Off the Badger bench, Ryan will most likely go with 6'10” freshman Frank Kaminsky.  Kaminsky is another UW big man who has some perimeter skills (though his deep shot hasn't fallen at a great clip thus far) and a physical presence.  At this stage, he's a guy they ask to buy them some rest for the starters and not hurt the team.  In time, though, they think he'll be yet another productive big kid for that program.

THE 5 KEYS:

Poise – MSU has taken major steps in terms of the way they've avoided giveaways in recent weeks.  Wisconsin isn't a team that looks to pressure you into mistakes, but MSU has proven to be very turnover-prone in that building over the years, in part due to frustration in finding it difficult to run their offense the way they'd like.  It's the same old story against these guys...they will likely find a way to control the tempo and in a low possession game, you can't afford to give away opportunities to score.

Second Chances – Again, in a low possession game and in particular in that sort of game, facing a team that limits opponents to 35% from the floor, it is important to find as many ways to score as possible.  An obvious answer for MSU is always second chance baskets via offensive rebounds.  This is a decent rebounding team MSU is facing, but the Spartans should be able to get on the offensive glass and if they can find some success in turning those boards into easy baskets, so much the better.

Patience – Here, I'm primarily talking about defensive patience.  Again, MSU fans know the drill by now...the Badgers will run the swing offense looking and probing for a favorable matchup, and often times that'll mean a shot doesn't come until 25-30 seconds of the shot clock has evaporated.  MSU has to be focused and solid for 35 full seconds each possession.  The Badgers haven't been great offensively this year, but they can punish you for inattention to detail like few other teams.  One thing's for sure...they're not going to be likely to kick the ball around and beat themselves.  MSU is going to have to close out possessions.

Paint – I like MSU's post group against the Badgers.  Wisconsin is smaller most of the time than they've been in recent years, and that could give MSU an opportunity to continue to do damage down low.

Free throws – In a tight game, and especially one on the road, you need to hit the opportunities you're given from the line.  MSU did a fantastic job in this area at Nebraska, but doing it in Madison is an entirely different deal.  UW isn't likely to put MSU on the stripe very often, so     when they do get there, they need to cash in.

OVERALL – The way MSU has played for really the entirety of this season (even the two losses), it would be foolish to think that it's impossible for the Spartans to pull off the upset here.  This MSU team has played with a mindset and a style that gives it a chance to compete in any road venue.  Put that together with the fact that Wisconsin doesn't appear to be as good as some thought they might be in October, and it would seem on paper that MSU has one of the best opportunities to get a win here of the entire Ryan era.

I think MSU will compete.  I think they'll play hard, with physicality and effort, and I think they'll largely play smart basketball as well.  I think they'll play well enough to have a chance to win the game late.  In the end, however, it's very difficult for me to pick them to beat this team in their building until we actually SEE the Spartans do exactly that. I have a feeling that Taylor finds his shot, at least for one night, and Wisconsin gets just enough out of him to fuel the win.

PREDICTION – Wisconsin 60  Michigan State 56